11 Oct Nigeria Macroeconomic & Markets Report, Q3 2019
- Nigeria’s crude oil production rose again in August 2019
- Headline inflation declined to 11.02% in August
- Total capital imported declined as inflows from foreign sources resumed their lead
- The PMIs reduced slightly while they remained in growth region.
The Financial Markets
- Fixed income yields increased further in September
- The Naira appreciated on the back of increased foreign inflows
- Equity performance remained subdued due to dwindling investor appetite.
Our Expectation for the Coming Quarter
- Increasing crude oil production, strong PMIs and the yuletide are expected to boost Q4 2019 GDP
- Our inflation outlook is uncertain due to the contrasting effects of the harvest season (which could push down inflation) and reduced imports (which could push it up) on prices during the yuletide
- Increasing pressure on the foreign exchange reserves may push the Naira lower
- Fixed income yields are expected to remain high and equities performance subdued due to weak investor sentiment.